Our Dying Music Industry

By Matthew J. Casella (more articles from this author) 2002-09-28

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Right now, the music industry is a fish in a shallow, evaporating, mud-choked, puddle. Every month, millions of songs are effectively stolen and swapped online using file sharing software with zero compensation going to the artists or record labels. The number of songs swapped/stolen will grow exponentially as millions more people gain access to the internet. The record labels, in their effervescent stupidity, will continue trying, without success, to regulate the internet (impossible) rather than develop a workable business plan to sell MP3's legitimately to the three or so honest people left on planet earth. The rest of humanity will continue voraciously sharing music online communist style, with insatiable greed until gradually, something happens...

We are just now beginning to see the effects of file sharing on the music industry, as album sales worldwide have started on a steady decline. When Napster, the original file sharing software for people to steal music with, came out, many people, including some artists, claimed that the service would actually boost record sales. In theory, and in an honest world, it just might have. I download a song by an artist and I really dig it. So then, I go out and buy the CD, right? Of course not, I just get back online, download the rest of the album and burn it onto a CD, silly! We always hurt the ones we love the most, and that is just what music lovers do when they pirate the music of their favorite artists online, via file sharing software.

Initially, and as we currently see happening now, record labels will invest millions of dollars trying to make CD's "pirate proof." At some point, probably on the verge of bankruptcy, record labels will realize that nothing can stop dishonest people from pirating music. Whatever technology is developed, it WILL be circumvented.

In the nearer than you think future, I predict a total collapse of the record labels, as putting out albums and artist development become totally unprofitable. The millions of dollars a record label puts into developing an act will yield no return as radio, music video, and even word-of-mouth all become advertisements for a product that's available for FREE via the internet.

As record label cash begins drying up, so will the extravagant lifestyles of their artists. As a result, the people drawn into the music biz "for the money" will quickly move into other areas. This will leave only the true talents who do music for the sheer love of it, right? Almost, except that they will be busy working day jobs because only three people bought their last album (the rest got it off the internet).

The labels will go out flopping and gasping in the shallow, quickly evaporating music industry. We will see a shortage of fast food jobs as labels begin folding, leaving artists to fend for themselves. Would you like fries with that?

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